Looking into the crystal ball – Swedish radiology 2025. A qualitative study of possible future scenarios
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.7577/radopen.1527Emneord (Nøkkelord):
radiology, future research, scenario planning, future of radiologySammendrag
During the 20th century, the field of radiology experienced extraordinary growth and became an essential component of the practice of clinical medicine (Chan, 2002). In the 21st century, it is likely that radiology will continue to grow by interfacing with new and important domains such as information technology, molecular biology new tracers in nuclear medicine. This will require radiologists to understand the gaps between the new frontiers and the traditional core of radiology.
This article introduce the reader to one strategy management method, Scenario Planning, to identify, analyze and present four scenarios for the Swedish Radiology 2025. It also presents the trends that will affect the future of radiology
Referanser
References
Ahrne, G.& Svensson, P. (2011). Handbok i kvalitativa metoder. (1. ed.) Malmö: Liber.
Bello, J. (2012). Turf issues in radiology and its subspecialties. Neuroimaging Clinics of North America, 22(3):411-419. doi: 10.1016/j.nic.2012.04.006.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nic.2012.04.006
Berlin, J.W & Lexa, F.J. (2012). Strategic Planning for Neuroradiologists. Neuroimaging Clinics of North America, 22(3): 403–409. doi: 10.1016/j.nic.2012.04.007
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nic.2012.04.007
Chan, S. (2002) The importance of strategy for the evolving field of radiology. Radiology, 224(3), 639-48. doi:
https://doi.org/10.1148/radiol.2243011390
Cook, C.N., Wintle, B.C., Aldrich, S.C. & Wintle, B.A. (2014). Using strategic foresight to assess conservation Oppurtunity. Conservation Biology, 28:6, 1474-1483. doi: 10.1111/cobi.12404. Epub 2014 Nov 7.
https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.12404
Dunnick, N.R. (2015). Reflect on the Past, Plan for the Future. Radiology, 276(2), 318-21. doi: 10.1148/radiol.2015150307
https://doi.org/10.1148/radiol.2015150307
Ejvegård, R. (2003). Vetenskaplig metod. (3., ed.) Lund: Studentlitteratur.
Enzmann, D.R., Beauchamp, N.J. & Norbash, A. (2011). Scenario Planning. Journal of the American College of radiology, 8(3):175-9. doi: 10.1016/j.jacr.2010.08.022
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacr.2010.08.022
Ernest, J.F (2000). Consensus Conference Seeks New Pathways for Radiology Education. Radiology, 219(3), 589–590. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1148/radiology.219.3.r01jn26589
https://doi.org/10.1148/radiology.219.3.r01jn26589
Fridell, K. (2011). A walk into the digital world – A long and winding road. Doctor thesis, Karolinska Institutet, Division of Medical Imaging and Technology Department of Clinical Science, Intervention and Technology.
http://publications.ki.se/xmlui/handle/10616/41212
Fuchs, V.R., Sox, H.C. (2001). Physicians' views of the relative importance of thirty medical innovations. Health Affairs (Millwood) 20(5):30–42
https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.20.5.30
Ghanem, M., Schnoor, J., Heyde, C.E., Kuwatsch, S., Bohn, M. & Josten, C. (2015); Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning. GMS Interdisciplinary Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery DGPW, 22:(4):Doc06.
doi: 10.3205/iprs000065. eCollection
Gillies, R.J, Kinahan, P.E, Hricak, H. (2015) Radiomics: Images Are More than Pictures, They Are Data. Radiology,18-151169. http://dx.doi.org/10.1148/radiol.2015151169
https://doi.org/10.1148/radiol.2015151169
Goldsmith, J. (2011). The future of Radiology in the New Health Care Paradigm; the Moreton Leture. Journal of the American College of radiology,;8(3):159-63. doi: 10.1016/j.jacr.2010.08.024
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacr.2010.08.024
Hryhorczuk, A.L, Hanneman, K, Eisenberg, R.L, Meyer, E.C and Brown, S.D. (2015) Radiologic Professionalism in Modern Health Care. Radiographics: 35(6):1779-88. doi: 10.1148/rg.2015150041
https://doi.org/10.1148/rg.2015150041
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King, C.L, Marcovici, P, Phelps, A, Potter, C, Tillack, A, Tomich, J & Tridandapani, S. (2013). Digitization of Medicine - How Radiology Can Take Advantage of the Digital Revolution. Academic radiology, 20:12, 1479–1494
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.acra.2013.09.008
Kohli, M, Dreyer, K.J & Geis, J.R. (2015). Rethinking radiology informatics. American Journal of roentgenology, 204(4):716-20. doi: 10.2214/AJR.14.13840.
https://doi.org/10.2214/AJR.14.13840
Krestin, G.P. (2009). Maintaining Identity in a Changing Environment: The Professional and Organizational Future of Radiology. Radiology,250(3):612-7. doi: 10.1148/radiol.2503081791.
https://doi.org/10.1148/radiol.2503081791
Kvale, S. & Brinkmann, S. (2009). Den kvalitativa forskningsintervjun (2. Ed). Lund: Studentlitteratur AB.
Lexa, F.J., Chan, S. (2010). Scenario analysis and strategic planning: practical applications for radiology practices. Journal of the American College of radiology, 7(5):369-73. doi: 10.1016/j.jacr.2009.12.012.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacr.2009.12.012
Lindgren, M & Bandhold, H. (2008). Scenarioplanering: Länken mellan framtid och strategi. Uppsala: Uppsala Publishing House.
Malterud, K. (2009). Kvalitativa metoder i medicinsk forskning. Lund: Studentlitteratur AB.
Margulis, A.R. (2011) The future of radiology. Rambam Maimonides Medical Journal, 2(3): e0059. doi: 10.5041/RMMJ.10059
https://doi.org/10.5041/RMMJ.10059
Morgan, D.L. & Krueger, R.A. (1998). Planning focus groups. Focus group kit. Vol. 2. California: SAGE Publications, Inc.
https://doi.org/10.4135/9781483328171
Marshall, M. (1996) The key informant technique. Oxford University Press. Olsson, H. & Sörensen, S. (2011). Forskningsprocessen: kvalitativa och kvantitativa perspektiv. (3. ed.) Stockholm: Liber
https://doi.org/10.1093/fampra/13.1.92
Patel, R. & Davidson, B. (2008). Forskningsmetodikens grunder – Att planera, genomföra och rapportera en undersökning. (4 ed). Lund: Studentlitteratur
Persson, A. (2010) Will medical visualisation tools meet medical user requirements in the future? Radiation Protection Dosimetry, 139(1-3):12-9. doi: 10.1093/rpd/ncq018. Epub 2010 Feb 16.
https://doi.org/10.1093/rpd/ncq018
Scenario planning (2015). I Wikipedia. Retrieved Nov 16, 2015, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_planning#cite_noteScenarios:_An_Explorer.27s_Guide-25
Sharpe, R.E., Mehta, T.S, Eisenberg, R.L. & Kruskal, J.B. (2015). Strategic planning and radiology practice management in the new health care environment. Radiographics, 35(1):239-53. doi: 10.1148/rg.351140064.
https://doi.org/10.1148/rg.351140064
Tzu, S. (1944), The art of War. New York: Dover Publications Inc.
Vollmar, C.H., Ostermann, T. & Redaèlli, M. (2015) Using the scenario method in the context of health care – a scoping review. BMC Medical Research Methodology, 16, 15:89 doi:10.1186/s12874-015-0083-1
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-015-0083-1
Ahrne, G.& Svensson, P. (2011). Handbok i kvalitativa metoder. (1. ed.) Malmö: Liber.
Bello, J. (2012). Turf issues in radiology and its subspecialties. Neuroimaging Clinics of North America, 22(3):411-419. doi: 10.1016/j.nic.2012.04.006.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nic.2012.04.006
Berlin, J.W & Lexa, F.J. (2012). Strategic Planning for Neuroradiologists. Neuroimaging Clinics of North America, 22(3): 403–409. doi: 10.1016/j.nic.2012.04.007
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nic.2012.04.007
Chan, S. (2002) The importance of strategy for the evolving field of radiology. Radiology, 224(3), 639-48. doi:
https://doi.org/10.1148/radiol.2243011390
Cook, C.N., Wintle, B.C., Aldrich, S.C. & Wintle, B.A. (2014). Using strategic foresight to assess conservation Oppurtunity. Conservation Biology, 28:6, 1474-1483. doi: 10.1111/cobi.12404. Epub 2014 Nov 7.
https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.12404
Dunnick, N.R. (2015). Reflect on the Past, Plan for the Future. Radiology, 276(2), 318-21. doi: 10.1148/radiol.2015150307
https://doi.org/10.1148/radiol.2015150307
Ejvegård, R. (2003). Vetenskaplig metod. (3., ed.) Lund: Studentlitteratur.
Enzmann, D.R., Beauchamp, N.J. & Norbash, A. (2011). Scenario Planning. Journal of the American College of radiology, 8(3):175-9. doi: 10.1016/j.jacr.2010.08.022
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacr.2010.08.022
Ernest, J.F (2000). Consensus Conference Seeks New Pathways for Radiology Education. Radiology, 219(3), 589–590. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1148/radiology.219.3.r01jn26589
https://doi.org/10.1148/radiology.219.3.r01jn26589
Fridell, K. (2011). A walk into the digital world – A long and winding road. Doctor thesis, Karolinska Institutet, Division of Medical Imaging and Technology Department of Clinical Science, Intervention and Technology.
http://publications.ki.se/xmlui/handle/10616/41212
Fuchs, V.R., Sox, H.C. (2001). Physicians' views of the relative importance of thirty medical innovations. Health Affairs (Millwood) 20(5):30–42
https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.20.5.30
Ghanem, M., Schnoor, J., Heyde, C.E., Kuwatsch, S., Bohn, M. & Josten, C. (2015); Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning. GMS Interdisciplinary Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery DGPW, 22:(4):Doc06.
doi: 10.3205/iprs000065. eCollection
Gillies, R.J, Kinahan, P.E, Hricak, H. (2015) Radiomics: Images Are More than Pictures, They Are Data. Radiology,18-151169. http://dx.doi.org/10.1148/radiol.2015151169
https://doi.org/10.1148/radiol.2015151169
Goldsmith, J. (2011). The future of Radiology in the New Health Care Paradigm; the Moreton Leture. Journal of the American College of radiology,;8(3):159-63. doi: 10.1016/j.jacr.2010.08.024
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacr.2010.08.024
Hryhorczuk, A.L, Hanneman, K, Eisenberg, R.L, Meyer, E.C and Brown, S.D. (2015) Radiologic Professionalism in Modern Health Care. Radiographics: 35(6):1779-88. doi: 10.1148/rg.2015150041
https://doi.org/10.1148/rg.2015150041
Judkins, M.P. (1967). Selective coronary arteriography. I. A percutaneous transfemoral technic. Radiology 89: 815-824.
https://doi.org/10.1148/89.5.815
Institutet för framtidsstudier. (2000). Framtider: Demografi & demokrati nr 1 Tillgänglig: http://www.iffs.se/publikation/artiklar-i-framtider-nr-12000-2/ (2015-11-16)
Institutet för framtidsstudier. (2002). Framtider: Stad och land nr 2 Tillgänglig: http://www.iffs.se/publikation/artiklar-i-framtider-nr-22002/ (2015-11-16)
King, C.L, Marcovici, P, Phelps, A, Potter, C, Tillack, A, Tomich, J & Tridandapani, S. (2013). Digitization of Medicine - How Radiology Can Take Advantage of the Digital Revolution. Academic radiology, 20:12, 1479–1494
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.acra.2013.09.008
Kohli, M, Dreyer, K.J & Geis, J.R. (2015). Rethinking radiology informatics. American Journal of roentgenology, 204(4):716-20. doi: 10.2214/AJR.14.13840.
https://doi.org/10.2214/AJR.14.13840
Krestin, G.P. (2009). Maintaining Identity in a Changing Environment: The Professional and Organizational Future of Radiology. Radiology,250(3):612-7. doi: 10.1148/radiol.2503081791.
https://doi.org/10.1148/radiol.2503081791
Kvale, S. & Brinkmann, S. (2009). Den kvalitativa forskningsintervjun (2. Ed). Lund: Studentlitteratur AB.
Lexa, F.J., Chan, S. (2010). Scenario analysis and strategic planning: practical applications for radiology practices. Journal of the American College of radiology, 7(5):369-73. doi: 10.1016/j.jacr.2009.12.012.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacr.2009.12.012
Lindgren, M & Bandhold, H. (2008). Scenarioplanering: Länken mellan framtid och strategi. Uppsala: Uppsala Publishing House.
Malterud, K. (2009). Kvalitativa metoder i medicinsk forskning. Lund: Studentlitteratur AB.
Margulis, A.R. (2011) The future of radiology. Rambam Maimonides Medical Journal, 2(3): e0059. doi: 10.5041/RMMJ.10059
https://doi.org/10.5041/RMMJ.10059
Morgan, D.L. & Krueger, R.A. (1998). Planning focus groups. Focus group kit. Vol. 2. California: SAGE Publications, Inc.
https://doi.org/10.4135/9781483328171
Marshall, M. (1996) The key informant technique. Oxford University Press. Olsson, H. & Sörensen, S. (2011). Forskningsprocessen: kvalitativa och kvantitativa perspektiv. (3. ed.) Stockholm: Liber
https://doi.org/10.1093/fampra/13.1.92
Patel, R. & Davidson, B. (2008). Forskningsmetodikens grunder – Att planera, genomföra och rapportera en undersökning. (4 ed). Lund: Studentlitteratur
Persson, A. (2010) Will medical visualisation tools meet medical user requirements in the future? Radiation Protection Dosimetry, 139(1-3):12-9. doi: 10.1093/rpd/ncq018. Epub 2010 Feb 16.
https://doi.org/10.1093/rpd/ncq018
Scenario planning (2015). I Wikipedia. Retrieved Nov 16, 2015, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_planning#cite_noteScenarios:_An_Explorer.27s_Guide-25
Sharpe, R.E., Mehta, T.S, Eisenberg, R.L. & Kruskal, J.B. (2015). Strategic planning and radiology practice management in the new health care environment. Radiographics, 35(1):239-53. doi: 10.1148/rg.351140064.
https://doi.org/10.1148/rg.351140064
Tzu, S. (1944), The art of War. New York: Dover Publications Inc.
Vollmar, C.H., Ostermann, T. & Redaèlli, M. (2015) Using the scenario method in the context of health care – a scoping review. BMC Medical Research Methodology, 16, 15:89 doi:10.1186/s12874-015-0083-1
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-015-0083-1
Nedlastinger
Publisert
2015-11-30
Hvordan referere
Fridell, K., & Ekberg, J. (2015). Looking into the crystal ball – Swedish radiology 2025. A qualitative study of possible future scenarios. Radiography Open, 2(1), 15–29. https://doi.org/10.7577/radopen.1527
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